HC Insight: Hiring is up, layoff plans are too. Flexibility is the plan.
The US added 165,000 jobs in October, yet nearly two-thirds of HR leaders expect layoffs in 2027 and DHS wants to end the H-1B grace period. Tony Buffum on why businesses need flexibility to get good talent when they need it.
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The jobs data and the layoff plans are pointing in opposite directions this week. Here's how I read it.
Here's what stands out this week:
- Hiring picked up, and so did layoff plans. The US added 165,000 jobs in October, and unemployment held at 4.1%.[1] Professional and business services added 70,000 of them, against a monthly average of 15,000 over the past year.[1] Yet nearly two-thirds of HR leaders expect layoffs in 2027.[2] And 32% of hiring managers say their company brought back roles it had cut for AI.[3]
- The rules for visa talent tightened again. DHS proposed ending the 60-day grace period H-1B workers get to find a new job after a layoff.[4] And since November 9, USCIS rejects work visa petitions filed on the old I-129 form.[5]
- Investors are split on AI staffing. Swipejobs, an "AI native" staffing platform touted at $2B, pushed its IPO into next year as fund managers question its AI story.[6]
Here's my interpretation of the data:
- A tight market may be driving the layoff talk as much as AI. Professional services hired at nearly five times its usual pace in October, and unemployment is at 4.1%.[1] Good talent is getting harder to find and keep. Planning cuts for 2027 is partly a hedge on that cost, not only a bet on AI.[2] And a third of the companies that cut for AI are already hiring back.[3]
- Visa pipelines are less predictable every month. If the grace period goes, a layoff could mean an H-1B worker has to leave right away.[4] A petition on the wrong form now gets rejected.[5] A plan that depends on one pipeline breaks when the rules change.
- Nobody can verify the AI story yet, including investors. Fund managers are still testing what AI does for staffing.[6] You shouldn't plan headcount around claims the market hasn't proven.
Bottom line, it's all unpredictable and dynamic. Businesses need flexibility if they want good talent when they need it.
Here's how Human Cloud is helping:
As you hopefully know, we not only lead the conversations to help you get started, we're your honest broker helping you find the right solutions.
Whether it's an EOR, or a specialized developer sourcing solution, we're the neutral advisor that helps you scale your flexible workforce.
- If you need to learn more or gain leadership buy in, book an executive briefing »
- Or if you're in Miami on December 10, request an invite to dinner »
Here's to making the world work!
- Tony
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Tony Buffum Co-Founder & Chief Strategy Officer at Human Cloud. 20+ years in global HR and talent transformation. Former CHRO at FLIR Systems, VP HR at Stanley Black & Decker, VP HR Client Strategy at Upwork. Grab time with me » |
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PS: With the H-1B rules moving again, my piece on why the $100K fee pushes companies toward marketplaces and EORs is worth a second read. Read the article » |
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Industry News
The rest of what I'm reading this week.
The rules keep moving
| • | DOL's final rule raising H-1B prevailing wages is now under OMB review - Fragomen, Nov 9 |
| • | Midterm results are unlikely to bring quick H-1B relief, lawyers say - Business Standard, Nov 4 |
| • | A proposed rule on H-1B extensions would hit Indian workers hardest, USCIS data shows - MSN, Nov 1 |
| • | Australia sets minimum pay and insurance rules for gig delivery workers - VnExpress, Nov 8 |
| • | India's central bank eases export reporting for freelancers - BW Businessworld, Nov 6 |
Staffing deals
| • | Persol sells its Australian business to Service Stream - SIA, Nov 9 |
| • | Calviks closes its largest deal yet, buying 70% of Norway's Subshore - SIA, Nov 9 |
| • | Harpstone Group buys three Irish staffing firms and names a new CFO - SIA, Nov 3 |
| • | NIIT Learning Systems acquires Bluewater Learning for AI-driven talent transformation - HRTech Series, Oct 30 |
AI is reshaping headcount
| • | Nearly 20% of US workers replaced by AI are being asked back - Fortune, Nov 9 |
| • | Meta weighs cutting 16,000 jobs to fund its AI infrastructure bet - Startup Fortune, Nov 6 |
| • | SUSE cuts about 10% of its staff, citing AI and automation - The Next Web, Nov 2 |
| • | Companies are not saving money with AI, Gartner finds - HR Dive, Oct 29 |
Governments are writing AI work rules
| • | A Philippine Senate bill would require notice before AI-driven layoffs - The Manila Times, Nov 8 |
| • | Greece proposes new rules for AI in the workplace - GreekReporter, Nov 3 |
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Sources
[1] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: The Employment Situation, October 2026
[2] HR Dive: Nearly two-thirds of HR leaders expect layoffs in 2027
[4] Staffing Industry Analysts: DHS seeks to end 60-day grace period for H-1B holders
[5] El Cronista: Employers must use the new I-129 to apply for work visas starting in November
[6] Capital Brief: How real is the AI story? Swipejobs' $2b float plans divide investors
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